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Bad Logic Means Bad Policy

4/24/2019

2 Comments

 
I recently watched a hearing of a legislative committee, a courageous act as it exposed me to the rantings of our pompous self-serving legislators.
 
This particular session concerned a voucher program allowing parents to select and pay for an alternative education to that provided by the public school system.
 
I was struck by an interchange between a representative (he) favoring the plan and an advocate (she) decrying it. It went something like this:
 
He: “Would you come with me to visit…” and he mentioned a charter school in his neighborhood with an excellent reputation.
 
She: “Certainly, if you will go with me to a public school.”
 
Then he, showing the intellect of the fifth grader, said, “The public school in my area is terrible.”
 
She did not respond because, once he had the last word, she was dismissed. But I’m sure she could have referenced studies that pinpointed private and charter schools with miserable academic standards, untrained teachers, poor or absent accounting practices, and outright lying about facilities.
 
The logic of these arguments is terrible—on both sides.
 
His touting of an instance of one excellent private school and one bad public one is meant to convince that all private schools are great and all public schools are poor.
 
Her argument is just the opposite as she mentions or could mention, one good public school and one poor private one.
 
It’s similar to a joke mathematicians sometime express. Yes, mathematicians can enjoy a good laugh. Here’s an example that will make you question the definition of “joke.” Suppose a blossoming scientist wants to show the truth of the statement “Every odd integer greater that 1 is a prime number.” A prime number, you may recall, is a number like 17 where the only numbers that divide into it are 1 and itself, that is, 1 and 17 in this case.
 
So our budding analyst says, “Look, 3 is a prime and 5 is a prime and 7 is a prime. So what I said must be true.” Mathematicians, when trying to see if something involving odd numbers greater than 1 is true might experiment with the idea by doing something similar, that is, prove it for 3 and for 5 and for 7. Then they might say, “Must be true for all odd integers.” Then they laugh. You’re not laughing? Well, we mathematicians are a strange lot.
 
But why are we laughing? Because we know basing a general result on one or ten or a hundred examples does not prove anything, except it’s true for those examples.
 
So when the young scientist says all odd numbers greater than 1 are primes based on the first three values, he’s employing poor logic. In fact, as I’m sure you’ve divined, he’s wrong and the very first number he didn’t check, 9, proves it. After all, 3 divides into 9 with no trouble at all.
 
Do you see that both our antagonists make the same illogical argument as the youngster? One or more instances of good or bad private or public schools tells us nothing about other schools.
 
It turns out that some charter schools, including those serving students with special needs, fill an important void and are deserving of support. Others really are rip-offs.
 
Some public schools have many problems. Others do superb work educating a diverse population whose makeup they cannot control.
 
Clearly there is a middle ground. But will it ever be found by our antagonists? Not if they argue the way they have been. If the legislator really thinks a single excellent example means private education is best, he won’t see the problems with it. If the advocate really thinks a good public school means they are all good, she won’t see the advantages of specialized educational needs outside the public system.
 
This type of approach does not lend itself to compromise.
 
Instead, it exacerbates the rigid partisan bickering that has taken over our nation and to a larger extent our world. Frankly, I’m sick of it.
 
So here’s my plea. No matter what the topic, be it political or personal, do not attempt to make a point by spouting a single example. Instead have the courage to consider additional examples you could give including ones not fostering your argument. If you can do that—if we can do that—maybe we can take some tiny steps toward a kinder and more productive society.
 
Because I fear if we don’t alter our ways soon, it may become too late.

2 Comments

Our Lady of Paris

4/17/2019

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When the state of our state is so terrible, when the state of our country is so terrible, when the state of our world is so terrible, why is it the horrors extend to icons that have been with us for centuries?
 
I could not believe it when told Notre-Dame de Paris was in flames. Then I could not believe it when its spire plummeted and roof caved. Then I could not believe it when it seemed the entire structure was engulfed. Then I was reminded of all the treasured art inside.
 
It took 100 years to build, a single day to destruct.
 
I wrote the above as I watched the flames on television. It seemed hopeless and I was angry and sad. Now it’s the next day and the snippets of news I’ve seen paint a picture less bleak. The two towers seem to have survived. The 8000-pipe organ is unharmed. Some of the most precious artwork was removed and will be transferred to the Louvre. Other masterpieces have been damaged but possibly could be restored. We’ll learn more of the real extent of the damage as time passes.
 
Why am I so upset about a building 4500 miles away that I’ve stepped in probably no more than a half dozen times? The answer is not clear.
 
But I am not alone. There seems to be a worldwide response of horror at the loss, sympathy for the French, and determination to assist in rebuilding. Once again tragedy brings out the best in people, making me wonder why we need catastrophe to let it show.
 
There is merit in icons rooted in the past. Notre Dame has been around 850 years. It has been a constant in a fast paced world in which three years is a technological lifetime. I think we need such steadiness to assure us that no matter how things change, or how difficult the current situation is, there is always an attachment to a past that will give refuge when needed.
 
So when the past is uprooted, it facilitates the impermanence of the present.
 
I felt the same loss in 2001 when the Taliban destroyed the 2600 year old Buddhas of Bamiyan. I had never seen them, hadn’t even heard of them before the destruction. But the fact they had been around for so long meant a constancy that should have been respected.
 
It appears at the moment that the Notre Dame fire was accidental, at least in the sense it wasn’t intentional. The smashing of the Buddhas was a disgusting act of stupidity by a group of unworthy animals.
 
By respecting the past, I don’t mean to imply the past was anything but what it was. It often was cruel, it embraced slavery, women were chattels. I wouldn’t want to live there. Nevertheless, these anchors of the past provide a sanctuary we can turn to when peace and security are needed.
 
Until they aren’t there any longer.
 
There’s a big difference between the Buddha destruction and the Notre Dame fire. The former is gone forever. The latter can be rebuilt.
 
I am convinced France will rebound from this tragedy as it has from so many others over its history. It will indeed rebuild its historic cathedral. The world will continue to visit the country and the City of Lights. It will watch the reconstructed church return. It will help in the process.
 
Vive la France!
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So That's What It Means

4/10/2019

1 Comment

 
Statements others have no difficulty interpreting often send me musing.
 
When my daughter was in college, they had a family weekend each year that included attendance at a football game allowing one to swelter three hours in a humid 90-degree sauna claiming to be a stadium. As we were walking to the arena, I noticed several signs posted in front of marked spaces announcing FOOTBALL PARKING. This sounded exciting and I wanted to hang around to watch. My daughter urged me forward so instead I asked her how it worked. Did the ball wobble back and forth as it maneuvered its way into the space? The space seemed large for one football, so I also wanted to know if several of the balls shared a space. My daughter had a friend with her and felt for some reason she had to say some things about her father.
 
While running one morning in the dark, visibility low, I came across two signs near to each other. One said BLIND DRIVEWAY and the other BLIND CORNER. I felt I should warn my fellow runners of the danger we faced as we with visibility impaired approached both a driveway and a corner with no visibility at all. I feared a disastrous collision resulting in bodily harm. I was shocked no one else seemed concerned.
 
During the latest election a TV station produced a voter guide, which I thought was a good move indeed. Imagine how surprised and pleased I was when the show’s anchor said, “Go to our voter guide to get the answer to any question.” Imagine that. How wonderful! At the time I was working on a math problem and I couldn’t make any headway. But when I went to the indicated website for help, it had nothing to do with math at all. I felt betrayed.
 
In a book I was reading there was the following passage. He said, “Call me Roger.” Mary said, “Same for me.” Why would Mary want to be called Roger? I foresaw confusion ahead as I strove to untangle who was speaking or acting or listening. For some reason, though, that turned out not to be a problem.
 
I don’t watch much TV, but I’ve seen a couple of commercials, often pushing some expensive health product that will cure a terrible medical problem and hopefully won’t cause any of the side effects listed in tiny print at the bottom of the screen and announced with a singular lack of clarity by a speaker who previously won an award for reading aloud a 372 page book in 20 minutes. What impressed me most about the commercial was the assurance that the individuals making it were “real people, not actors.” I was astounded to learn that all the plays I’ve gone to, all the movies I’ve seen, all the operas I’ve attended, all of them, were presented by robots.
 
Last November there was an article in our local paper with the headline “Multiplying monkeys at state park could become a problem.” Why on earth would that be an upsetting situation? If anything, I would think it would be a great draw to increase attendance. Imagine going up to a monkey and asking it to find the product of 723 and 2819 and watching it produce 2,038,137. I wondered if it used an abacus. Maybe the park could charge extra and allow the monkeys to do some tutoring on the side.
 
I can’t help but wonder what you must be thinking about me now.

1 Comment

How Are We Doing?

4/3/2019

0 Comments

 
How are we doing?
 
My Inbox displays the question as the heading of an email hungrily awaiting a reply.
 
Please take a moment to complete the attached survey, it says. It will take only 15 minutes, or 5 minutes, or even 1 minute, it promises.
 
The requests arrive more and more frequently from more and more sources.
 
Make a phone call to a utility company? How are we doing follows.
 
Or a purchase from an online store.
 
Or a call to a government agency.
 
Or a visit to my local drug store.
 
Or getting a haircut.
 
I even received one from my doctor’s office after my last regularly scheduled visit.
 
When I stupidly purchased a new car, I’d take it to the dealer for servicing. The customer representative handling all communication between me and the rest of the dealership informs me as I’m leaving that I’ll be emailed a survey about how well he did. He further requests that I rate him 10, the best, in all categories. So not only am I expected to take time for the survey, but also to respond in a predetermined manner. I don’t blame him. I’m sure low ratings would hurt his prospects.
 
I used to answer these requests, but I have vowed no more.
 
There are many reasons.
 
First and foremost, it’s an imposition to expect me to devote valuable time, time I could spend writing blogs for example, to give them information they may or may not pay any attention to.
 
Second, I find the questions often are so general as to be useless. Like “Did your problem get resolved? With the choices “Yes” or “No” while the correct answer is, “I don’t know yet. Time will tell.” It’s true most have a space for comments of any kind but that requires real work to adequately explain any problem.
 
I guess a reasonable question is, “What’s so bad with putting out a survey?” And I’m forced to admit I respect the desire to improve, although I’m not convinced a survey gets at any real problems unless there’s a huge percentage indicating a problem area.
 
That came to mind with the student evaluations I was forced to administer. In spite of the pressure, I think they were valuable. Sometimes. I’ve had students indicate I missed several classes. I never missed a class and such comments, appearing rarely, were brushed aside. So what’s the advantage of the evaluation if I was going to ignore the results? Well, I didn’t always. If a large percentage of the students indicated the same problem, I’d take it seriously and reevaluate my actions.
 
Another useful survey is ratings of products on Amazon, although they’re not always easy to evaluate. No matter how good an item is, there will be those who berate it, like a student bemoaning a missed class. However, I’ve learned that if a product is rated 4 or 5 by at least 80% of the respondents, it’s probably okay.
 
I guess what I’m saying is the idea of surveys is not inherently bad. What’s getting to me is the ever increasing number of them. And, of course, any like the one from the dealership which dictates how I should respond.
 
So, how about I send each of you a survey asking you to rate my blogs?
 
Don’t worry. I wouldn’t have the courage.

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