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Restarting the Nation

4/29/2020

There’s a push to restart the economy, to get things back to normal. I understand. Heck, I want things to return to the way they were. Not that I really expect them to. I think we’ll see significant changes to how we approach life. But it’s a worthy goal.

I’m not sure anyone knows the best return path. I certainly don’t. We all need guidance. I place most of my faith in the experts, certainly more than in any of the politicians.

I have deep sympathy for those furloughed or fired and understand the vital need for them to restart their income stream. I realize we must get the economy moving soon and recognize no return to normal is going to be risk free. I feel for those who have to make the tough decisions.

Whatever the approach, I hope our leaders plan it in a way that maximizes our safety and inspires confidence that they are concerned for all of us. So often, words of sensitivity accomplish much.

Unfortunately, such words often are absent from our leaders’ mouths. Comments already uttered range from stupid to unfeeling.

One of the dumber ones, by a Republican anxious to open the economy, said it would be beneficial to Trump and Republicans if people would eventually say, “Gee, not that many people died. Was it all worth it?” I’m afraid voters might very well think that way, especially if told to by he whose words are taken as gospel. What they should be saying is, “Thank goodness fewer died than had been predicted. Thank you to all the courageous leaders who shut things down and to all who obeyed so the death toll wasn’t significantly worse.”

Along the same lines are those mutterings attempting to justify the insignificance of the virus by saying the number of deaths from the flu is greater than the count from the virus. I don’t know if that will wind up being true, but again, deaths from the virus are down because of the actions taken, and any comparison of the two entirely different types of afflictions and approaches to dealing with them has to take that into account.

The speaker of the House in my state has associated himself with people who are saying things like: “The pandemic is over, let’s start the economy, and all the shutdown has been useless. Wow! If only we’d known all this sooner. Time to get rid of those face masks and give everyone we meet a big hug. He’ll be the first one I’ll hug as I cough.

Also, I wonder what a low death toll means. It’s easy to say that “only” 60,000 died when it could have been 300,000. I can’t help but think about all who have lost a family member to the virus. For them, everyone important has died. Many lives have been destroyed by the shutdown, but some have been devastated by permanent loss. Where is the sympathy for them in the “only” statement?

One of my favorite comments is that older people would be happy to die if it meant the economy could be opened. I’d be interested in a polling of seniors to see how enthusiastically they endorse that position. And I wonder if the author of the claim would sacrifice his parents. He probably would.

As I said, no return is going to be risk free. Several statements have been made that recognize deaths will increase when the economy opens. Fair enough. But then the comments often add, without empathy, “that’s just a sad fact.” I’ll say. It’s very sad to those who die and their relatives. What are we supposed to do, think of them as martyrs to a greater good?

I don’t trust most of those pushing for an early return. Politicians with pockets lined by large businesses. Squeezed together crowds walking around displaying guns and mocking social distancing. Financial gurus devastated by stock market plunges.

I do trust the medical community and the scientists.

We have to hope that a miracle will occur, and decisions will be made in a wise and caring way.

NEWS FLASH! As I was preparing this our governor just announced he will be removing restrictions (after chatting with President Trump because, of course, he wouldn’t want to act on his own) in a “measured” way with more details coming today. How will he do it? Will we be better off, or will our chances of getting sick increase? How much trust can I give to the man who looks to Trump for inspiration?

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Hoarding

4/22/2020

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Let’s talk toilet paper.

The shopper, chicly clothed in mask and disposable gloves, aims for the paper goods aisle. The first time the sight of completely bare shelves is shocking. The second time less so. The third, expected.

It’s like pre-hurricane moments when bottled water and ice evaporate. Except those shortages disappear in days. What we’re going through now is scarcity measured in weeks—at least.

The typical reaction: People must be hoarding. How despicable!

Recently I read an article that disputes this.

It pointed out that the amount of use of toilet paper has not increased. That made sense. Without getting too graphic, the same number of people with the same body functions should continue using the same amount of TP.

But the article noted a major change. Millions of people no longer went to work because of the virus. So there was a huge movement of those body functions from work to home.

And this is where the trouble began. It appears businesses have different requirements for the product than homes do. Businesses often need gigantic rolls and specific quality.

This means manufacturers have different processes to satisfy the varied demands and apparently it is difficult to retool for more concentration on the home market.

The result? More use at home with an unchanged amount of manufacturing for the home available. Ergo, a toilet paper shortage.

I think the article makes an interesting and probably valid argument. But I believe there’s more to it.

First, I have no doubt there are indeed hoarders. I envision closets and extra bedrooms packed floor to ceiling with cylinders of paper gold.

But let’s assume, for the sake of argument, there are no hoarders and the empty shelves are the result of only manufacturing limitations. What do we think when we see those barren shelves? Same as before, right? Hoarders!

Our natural reaction? We’d better get serious about finding the supplies we need because everyone else is going to snatch them up.

So I go to the store. It’s my lucky day. Toilet paper is in stock with no limit. I need only one package of 12, which I select. But then I hesitate. There’s a run on it by those disgusting hoarders. I’d better buy two. I don’t feel guilty. After all, it’s just one extra. I’m being a good citizen by not snatching up a half dozen. See, I’m no hoarder! Still, that’s twice as much as I’d normally purchase.

Unfortunately, there are millions of people like me. That means the demand for the product has doubled! That’s a tremendous increase and puts a strain on manufacturers who plan for normal home consumption.

In an inevitable result, the shelves become bare even faster. It’s getting harder and harder to find toilet paper. When I do, I’d better buy three packages, just to be safe. Gee, the shelves stay empty. Wonder why.

So my theory, unsupported by any valid research, is that, even if hoarding wasn’t there to begin with, an initial shortage due to unusual circumstances can create it.

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Machines I Have Known

4/15/2020

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When I was born radio was king, our family car had a rumble seat (look it up), and a washing machine was known as a washboard while a dryer was dubbed a clothesline.

We’ve come a long way since then, and I’ve been lucky to walk by the side of several amazing machines.

One of the earliest I met was when I was 12. My father, a smoker, took me on a tour of a cigarette factory. It remains my first recognition of the amazing creativity and genius of those who design manufacturing equipment. Imagine, a series of machines working in harmony to take tobacco and paper, cut the paper into small pieces, pour tobacco into each, roll the paper around it creating a cigarette, place 20 cigarettes into a package and then 10 packages into a box. It was fascinating. It was an amazing accomplishment. I still think so even though I now am fully aware of the negatives of tobacco and the tricks of the industry to addict us. It’s interesting that, at the end of the tour, my father was given a pack of cigarettes. And I was given a pack of candy cigarettes. Obvious now to see the deceitful goal: get the kid to fondle a fake cigarette like a real one and learn the feel of something in his mouth. It worked in one sense: I did mimic the actions of my father. But I won the long-term battle through luck more than anything. I never became a smoker.

My college had one of the first electronic computers. There had been earlier ones constructed from electromechanical devices, but the use of vacuum tubes promised increased speed and versatility. The machine was on two floors. At the heart of computers is the flip-flop, a device that is always in one of two states and thus can remember a single binary digit. There are several flip-flops in computers. In the machine at my school, known as Whirlwind, each one cost $200 in 1950’s dollars! I may be wrong here, but I seem to recall the machine had a gigantic 1000 words of memory! Now the smallest cell phone has more power by a huge factor than Whirlwind. But at the time it was an amazing achievement and made an impression on me I will never forget.

Advances in computers allowed phone companies to enter the electronic age and the Electronic Switching System was developed by Bell Telephone Laboratories in the 1960s. Before then phone communication was all electromechanical and I had the opportunity to tour an office where all the relays were opening and closing, allowing the routing of calls. It was an amazing experience as the clicking of moving parts was constant. I learned much of the logical design of the mechanical circuits that made up the system and was once again struck by the creativity of those who had conceived them. In the 1970s I taught a course in switching theory which related to the design of computers and phone systems. I took my class to a telephone office where we saw the new electronic system in operation. No more clicking.

I visited our local newspaper building, back in the days when physical papers were widely read. I saw linotype machines and huge presses that took gigantic rolls of paper and turned them into printed and folded newspapers ready for delivery. Another testimony to the creativity of humans.

I once worked on a project to improve the efficiency of the post office. I got to see machines that cancelled stamps and other minor functions. What impressed me most was a new device, experimental at the time, that could read addresses and route the letter along the correct path. One result of our study was to recommend that the country be divided into zones with an identifying number for each zone so that an initial machine sorting could easily direct a letter to the proper route. We were told, in the elaborate gigantic office of the prissy Assistant Postmaster General, that the public would never accept such a concept and our recommendation was rejected. It wasn’t much later that saner minds accepted the concept of zip code, but that was independent of our work. As an interesting sidelight, back then there were postal boxes everywhere and another of our recommendations was to have two at each location, one for local mail and one for out of town. This would eliminate a major initial sorting and hence increase efficiency. We were told that was unworkable because they had tried it. When the boxes were emptied, the worker had dumped both contents into the same bag!

Ingenuity has no limits. Humans constantly push the boundary of creation. Just think about modern computers, phones, self-driving cars, space vehicles, drones, medical devices, and so much more. I will always be amazed and look forward to what comes next.

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Dealing With COVID-19

4/8/2020

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Self-isolate. Lockdown. Stay home. How many ways have we been told not to go out? Even more so if you’re in that class of humanity termed “elderly,” or a “senior” by kinder speakers. I like neither designation, but of the two I prefer the latter. “Senior” gets me discounts at the theater. “Elderly” has me looking for a cane.

No matter what I’m called, though, I intend to follow the instructions to the best of my ability. Unlike the president, I believe in science. While the science of COVID-19 is still being discovered, I have a lot more faith in what the experts say than in the series of lies, misinformation, and stupid uninformed self-serving comments of President Trump.

So here I am stuck at home. Not a terrible sentence. After all, I’m retired and am used to being here, enjoy being here. How different can it be?

Turns out my life was more varied than I realized. Each week I went to a meeting first on one college campus and then on another to participate in research groups. I had a weekly dinner with a longtime colleague and a very good friend. I would lunch with my nephew, go to Einstein’s for coffee with a neighbor, and eat out with a fellow runner. I would go to operas and do the weekly shopping. I’d drool at items in the hardware store or Home Depot.

All that has been put on hold, leaving gaps in my days, gaps that, in the manner time works, will be filled one way or another.

The question is: How?

First by doing many of the things I always have. These postings, for example. Completing a draft on my latest book. Walking the dog. Walking me at a fairly fast pace thrice a week.

To fill up some of the newly available time I use emails and phone to maintain contact with those I previously saw in person. I’m reading more. Our local library has always delivered books to the home. I figured there’d be a constant flow. Alas, it stopped operation a couple of weeks ago. Fortunately, I still have a good supply, and I can check out ebooks from the library. I read the morning newspaper and do not subject myself to like input for the rest of the day. I discovered the Met has been streaming a daily opera. There’s three hours right there!

One time-filler I love is the result of entry into my fifth second childhood. I got a hankering a few months ago to build a model train layout. The trouble was, my current home seems to have no space for it. Attempts to take our office or guest bedroom for the project did not generate family enthusiasm, and neither did sacrificing the living or dining rooms.

I literally walked through my home for months trying to figure out a location. The most hopeful spot was the garage, also known as the storage shed, but I could figure no way to find the needed space without blocking access to what was stored.

Then inspiration hit. I could build a two foot by four-foot table and put it on wheels. Then, when I’d need access to some object, I could just slide the table out of the way. I constructed the table.

The trouble was with the dimensions. Two by four is small, really small, for a train. Then I discovered N-gauge. Everything about it is tiny, often a challenge for my big fingers. But nontrivial layouts on the small table are possible. I got started.

Then the virus came. When I realized its potential impact on my life, I ordered online the parts I would need. Now, when I get bored with everything else, or just want a change, I work on my tiny railroad, usually for a half hour or less. It’s mind diverting, time consuming, and fun.

How are you filling your excess hours these days? I would love it if anyone wished to share. I’ll be glad to use it as a posting, or to merge several offerings (all by Anonymous unless you wish otherwise). Just send them to me at [email protected].

Meanwhile, be safe. Remember this will end.

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War and Virus

4/1/2020

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A pandemic is threatening our country. We all have been requested to behave in ways that experts say represent the best hope to get through it with minimum negative effects.

It struck me that this was the first time in 80 years the entire nation has been asked to sacrifice so our country can survive. The last time was during World War II.

Several have drawn parallels between the virus and the War. One can overdo such comparisons, for there are vast differences. The virus will disappear faster, hopefully, than the war did. There is expectation a vaccine will be developed to make this scourge disappear. There is no attempt to eliminate an ethnic group.

But this is the first time since the war that every American is asked to make a self-sacrificing contribution.

No such demand occurred after other grave circumstances hit our nation.

Not in the war after war after war that occurred in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East and elsewhere.

Not after the attack on the World Trade Center.

Not after natural disasters including hurricanes, tornados, droughts, and floods.

Not after a multitude of mass shootings in schools, theaters, concerts, and other venues.

Not during major recessions.

None of these has hit home for the entire population. The post World War II wars, for example, shook and took the lives of thousands of young people courageously answering the calls of their safely ensconced leaders. But as they waged, only a small percentage of the citizens of our country were directly affected. The rest of us continued our daily lives virtually unaltered. In fact, that can be said about any of the events listed. Even the recessions, horrible as they were. A small percentage paid a huge price, but most did not. Nothing was asked of most of us.

The coronavirus is a different type of danger. It can affect every one of us. To beat it, we all have to alter our way of life for the common good. Just like during World War II.

Most people are willing to. But always there are some who won’t.

The hoarders won’t. We’ve seen them deplete shelves of toilet paper, paper towels, alcohol, sanitation sprays, wipes, breads, meats, and much else. Hoarders were around in World War II also. Simple requests back then to halt such practices achieved nothing, and rationing was established.

People continue to flock to beaches and rush to gun stores, considered “essential” in this crazy world, in the same “I want mine” mindset as the hoarders.

But now, as then, there is a community spirit. I see it my neighborhood as its members are respectful of the restrictions. People are mostly staying inside. When we dog walkers meet, we maintain six to eight feet separation as we talk. Parents use creative approaches in order to deal with the extra presence of their children.

I still want to believe in the basic goodness of the American people. That we still have the desire and the fortitude to do what is right over a long haul, just as we did during World War II. And that we come out of this kinder and less divided.

I have to believe we will emerge victorious from this challenge.

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Restarting the Nation

Hoarding

Machines I Have Known

Dealing With COVID-19

War and Virus

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