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You Pay — They Don't

2/27/2019

4 Comments

 
I took an economics course in college where we computed the optimum price and order size for Christmas trees in order to maximize profit, something I understand is a goal of business. That problem was simple enough that I could understand it; it was a mathematical optimization problem so, of course, I liked it.
 
But I don’t understand real businesses and have great admiration for those who do. This does not preclude me from noting various factors at play in efforts to separate me from my money. I’m impressed with the ingenuity applied to that goal.
 
Of course, there are always those who will resort to any means, no matter how slimy. For example, there is the million dollars awaiting me after I return a relatively small amount of money to assure my rights to it. More legitimate methods include “going out of business” sales, expensive TV pitches, the ease of shopping from home, and the allure of free shipping. The list goes on and on.
 
There is one scheme that is particularly vexing to me. It’s not illegal or even close. And I fall prey to it as I suspect everyone reading has. Whoever thought of it must be sitting back in an easy chair and laughing at the gullibility of the public.
 
It goes something like this. The entrepreneur selects merchandise or a service people want. Then comes the marketing. This could be via advertising on all the different media now available. Often effective although costly. Too costly for some and here’s where the genius comes in.
 
Let the purchaser do the advertising! Nothing better than word of mouth, of course, probably the best and most heartfelt endorsement any company could receive. But that’s not what I’m talking about here.
 
Instead, the customer displays an ad and it won’t cost a penny to the seller!
 
Sound crazy?
 
Think of all the shirts IZOD has placed on people with the company name emblazoned tastefully or blatantly. What gets me is folks pay extra for clothing with that name on it. They’ve been conned into thinking it’s a status symbol.
 
Running shoes and apparel are sprinkled with “Nike,” “Adidas,” “Saucony,” “Brooks,” and others.
 
Purchased cloth shopping bags display “Publix,” “Winn-Dixie,” and “Fresh Market.”
 
Automobiles have the dealer’s name on little metal attachments fastened through holes in the car.
 
Workers from painters to lawn treaters plant signs in grass that tend to take advantage of inertia and remain far longer than one might expect. I’m sure some have grown roots.
 
But why is this so bad? After all, race car drivers have their clothing and automobiles littered with sponsor names. What’s so different?
 
There’s a big difference. Each of those sponsored names is the result of a hefty donation to the racing team. The companies are paying for the display, not the other way around.
 
So why shouldn’t we receive payment for our exhibits? Why shouldn’t we get 50 cents a day for driving around with an auto dealer named on our car? Seems to me a dime is appropriate for every day a piece of clothing is worn. Just think, on a run even a so-so athlete might wear two shoes, shorts, shirt, and cap. That’s a half buck right there—every day one runs. Publix should cut a quarter off my bill whenever I bring one of its bags to my shopping. Any worker leaving a sign on a home lawn should pay a dollar for each day the sign remains.
 
Alas, I know I’m not going to change the way of the world. And I’m far from consistent in my dealings. For example, I buy running clothes and it’s true that the ones of better quality often have names on them. I do remove license plate holders but not the metal strips with the dealer name. I’m proud to say lawn signs don’t last long. And I do employ the cloth bags figuring the environmental benefits outweigh the granting of free publicity.
 
And in one case I happily pay to advertise. There is a wonderful running store owned by a caring and giving couple who sell shirts (fairly priced by the way) with the store’s name on them. I have bought several and wear them proudly because I appreciate what these fine folk do for the running and broader communities. But theirs are the only merchandise I purchase where I’m pleased to lend a hand in advertising.

4 Comments

Fibonacci

2/20/2019

4 Comments

 
In what may be a surprise, mathematicians don’t deal with numbers a lot. Their playground is filled with symbols, relations, and proofs. Yet it is with numbers that most people interact with math. So I hope it’s a comfort to learn that mathematicians do indeed like them.
 
I have a close friend with whom I share dinner on a weekly basis. Two of our favorite restaurants hand us identifying numbers to carry to our table so servers can locate where to carry our orders. Analyzing these numbers is a pastime shared with the cashier assigning them to us, much to his or her astonishment and amusement. Is it a perfect square? Is it a prime? If not, how do I write it as a product of primes? Our discussion continues on the walk to our table and more than once we’ve expressed gratitude no one else is privy to the conversation.
 
Sometimes there are numbers that do interest mathematicians in a theoretical sense and also appeal to the general public. As an example, we have Leonardo Bonacci, Leonardo of Pisa, or Leonardo Bigollo Pisano (the same person with different appellations) to thank. Most mathematicians would not recognize any of these names. But all would be aware of the more familiar designation Fibonacci, an Italian mathematician who lived from roughly 1170 to 1250.
 
We owe Fibonacci a debt. He wrote a book Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation) which advocated for the use of digits zero through nine and the place system where the rightmost digit counts ones, the next digit to the left counts 10s, the next 100s, and so forth. That is, he proposed the system we all use today. Better than counting knots on a rope or any of the other methods that have been proposed in antiquity. If you’re interested, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci is the Wikipedia link which discusses him in more detail and gives several references.
 
What’s of interest here is the Fibonacci sequence, that is, the following sequence of numbers:
 
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, …
 
How do you get these numbers, called Fibonacci numbers? Simple. Start with the 0 and the 1. The next number in the sequence is the sum of 0 and 1, that is, 1. Then add the last two numbers, 1 and 1, to get the next number 2. Then the last two, 1 and 2 to get 3, and so on forever and ever.
 
Not hard, right?
 
But who cares?
 
Well, these numbers appear in strange and unexpected places. For example, they occur in my book Murder By The Numbers. But perhaps you were looking for something a bit less lethal. So here are a few areas in nature where you might look to find them.
  1. Examine a sunflower. The center includes seeds arranged in spiral patterns. Some point left and some right. Count them all. You should get a Fibonacci number. Then count the number pointing left and the number pointing right. Each of these numbers in a Fibonacci number. In fact they are two consecutive numbers of the sequence. Does that make sense?
  2. Notice that the bumps on a pineapple also are arranged as spirals. The number of them is a Fibonacci number.
  3. Check out trees. Follow a trunk up until it splits forming two points for further growth. The trunk keeps growing and produces a second branch for three growth paths. After a while the trunk and the first branch each produce a new branch for a total of five. Then the trunk, the first branch, and the second branch produce three more for a total of eight, and so on.
  4. Count the number of petals on a flower. It depends on the flower, but often this is a Fibonacci number.
 
There are many other examples and spending a little time with Google can uncover more.
 
If you divide a Fibonacci number by the one preceding it in the sequence, you will always get a number close to 1.6. As you do this with bigger and bigger Fibonacci numbers the ratio changes very little and seems to be getting closer and closer to a specific number. This number is called the “golden ratio” and it is responsible for some of the pleasure in our lives.
 
But that’s for another day.

4 Comments

Protect Our Children

2/13/2019

2 Comments

 
“I don’t want to go to school.”
 
His mother was surprised. This was something new; he’d always felt so grown-up in his third-grade class. “Why not, Tim? Are kids mean to you?”
 
“No. Our teacher has a gun and I’m scared.”
 
Imagine being a child trying to learn when the teacher, an authoritarian figure if ever there was one, had a gun. How terrified would the youngster be about giving a wrong answer?
 
Tim’s teacher has responded to pressure to arm teachers in public schools. It’s a terrible idea for a host of reasons; Tim’s problem is only one of them.
 
Teachers will not be sufficiently trained.
 
Teachers in stressful situations are likely to be nervous, increasing danger to innocent children.
 
Teachers holding guns will be at risk as police charge in, looking for someone holding a gun.
 
Teachers at times will not adequately secure the weapon.
 
Teachers at times will inadvertently leave a gun in a bathroom or elsewhere out in the open.
 
Teachers might accidently leave guns overnight in the school, increasing the odds of theft.
 
Teachers might be involved in relationship problems that play out with an available gun.
 
Teachers could be overcome by aggressive students wanting to settle a score, either against the teacher or another student.
 
The chronic teacher shortage due to low pay will be exacerbated as many will refuse to work in a school with colleagues carrying.
 
If you think any of this is far-fetched, you don’t follow local news. Actions paralleling these scenarios have already occurred repeatedly in schools or work places, which, of course, a school is.
 
Don’t let anyone try to convince you none of these negatives will happen because the teachers will receive special training. They might put in a lot of hours, but in no way does it compare to the continuing instruction police receive, and even law enforcement officers make mistakes, especially in stressful situations.
 
Furthermore, training doesn’t eliminate natural human flaws. Have you ever forgotten to lock your car or home, or left your phone somewhere? We all have these lapses. Owning a gun will not eliminate them. But the consequences of a lapse involving a gun are frightening. Even a local former police chief had her gun stolen because it wasn’t secured properly. An unsecured gun is an invitation to a curious child.
 
What about staying cool under an attack? Who of us can say how we’d react. Some might be calm, the epitome of a TV hero. I suspect most of us would be nervous. Do you want a nervous person holding a gun? Besides, teachers are designed to care, not to kill.
 
The angst of teenage life is legion. Depression and anger taunt the hormonal makeup of the age group. Available guns represent potential disasters.
 
Of course, the push for arming teachers arises from the massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. Who could possible argue with making schools more secure? Well, no one.
 
But the question is, would arming teachers make them more secure? The latest figure I could find showed Florida has 4,517 public schools. Trying to determine the number of school shootings in the state in 2018 has proven elusive. One study showed there had been 14 since 2010, but that seems low to me. There’s even a debate at what should be called a school shooting, but I believe anytime a gun is fired on a campus, that’s a shooting. Only one has been the mass type that occurred at Marjory Stoneman Douglas, and that’s the type the new regulations are geared to deal with.
 
So one mass shooting. Guns allowed at 4,516 other schools. It wouldn’t take many “events,” accidental or intentional, to counter the advantage of thwarting another mass shooting.
 
It seems to me people who are drawn to teaching should be the polar opposite of those who are drawn to guns.
 
Leave protection to the professionals. If that’s difficult because of financial constraints, have the courage to raise taxes to solve the problem. Don’t use arming teachers as a cost saving measure.
 
As for me, I would worry about the gung-ho teacher who is willing to carry a gun. I don’t think I’d want him instructing my kids.

2 Comments

I Know Best

2/6/2019

2 Comments

 
The doctor enters the room where the woman sleeps in her bed, her husband by her side. “Well, Mr. X, I’ve thoroughly reviewed the scan results and feel the best course of action for Ms. X is surgery. I have asked four other doctors to review the case and they all agree.”
 
Mr. X, who has no experience in the medical field and barely can apply a bandaid, replies, “You are wrong. All of you are wrong. You are naïve. We will do radiation instead of surgery. I know best.”
 
They tell the president that Iran is living up to the deal it made, that North Korea probably will not fully divest itself of its nuclear capability, that ISIS is still a powerful force. The assessments come from presidential appointees Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and CIA Director Gina Haspel among others.
 
The president doesn’t like hearing that. It goes against what he wants to be true. So he does what he always does when someone disagrees with him. He publicly chastises them and essentially says, “I know best.”
 
The two situations have similarities, but the consequences are different.
 
When Mr. X ignores expert advice, he probably is putting the life of Ms. X in jeopardy.
 
When the president ignores expert advice, he places an entire country in jeopardy.
 
I recognize that it is not the president’s role to accept blindly the input of his intelligence community. He should indeed listen to what they say, reflect on it, and then decide the correct response.
 
But it seems as if the process works in reverse with this president. He determines the “correct” response and then accepts the input of his experts, unless of course it doesn’t match his preconceived notions.
 
Furthermore, he shows no respect for those on whom our country, if not him, relies. What kind of a leader publicly humiliates a dedicated underling? The answer is clear: a very poor leader. If he has a problem with someone working for him, he should speak to him privately. And if he’s going to fire him, he certainly shouldn’t do it via a tweet. Is he afraid of a direct confrontation? Does he fear in any one-on-one he would be the less competent? Is he safer if he attacks in public?
 
I can think of only three reasons why a person would continue to work for such a vicious and insecure leader. They are true patriots who want to bring some sanity to the execution of domestic and international affairs. They believe in the agenda of the president. They are consumed with ambition.
 
I hope the reason is the first. There seems to be hope that’s the case because the public stands they took were in direct conflict with the president’s preconceived notions.
 
I’m deeply worried. I have no faith this president can become sufficiently informed to formulate rational decisions, or even has the ability to make such decisions. In a time of emergency, how will he respond? He already has said he is smarter than his generals. His recent conduct indicates little faith in his intelligence community. He does not believe in science, and by extension scientists.
 
I hope we survive. But I’m scared of anyone who thinks he knows everything and is smarter than everyone else. When that person is the President of the United States, we all should be terrified.

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